Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 5 brokers · 310 line items · freshest revision 2026-06-29.
The broker models cast Amdocs as a low-growth, high-conversion compounder. After a roughly 9.5% revenue reset in FY2025 (a divestiture), the street has the top line reaccelerating to only about 3-4% a year, yet non-GAAP diluted EPS compounding from $7.00 toward $9.00 by FY2028 on steady operating-margin gains and buybacks. Coverage is thin: no line carries more than five brokers, and the differentiated segment detail rests on just two.
Operating EPS climbs from $7.00 to $9.00 by FY2028 while revenue grows just 3-4% a year
Revenue reaccelerates off the FY2025 reset, but each layer down the model grows faster than the one above it — operating income outpaces revenue and operating margin ticks up steadily through FY2028, so EPS does the real compounding.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.53bn | $4.69bn | $4.85bn | $5.02bn | +3.7% | 5 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Operating | $968.64m | $1.01bn | $1.06bn | $1.11bn | +4.6% | 5 |
| Operating margin(%) | 21.4% | 21.6% | 21.8% | 22.1% | +0.2pt | 5 |
| EPS - Diluted - Operating($) | $7.00 | $7.44 | $8.09 | $9.00 | +6.2% | 5 |
Growth leans international: RoW and Europe outpace a slowing North America as the managed-services base flattens
Managed services — about two-thirds of revenue — is the recurring ballast, but the models have it essentially flat by FY2028. Net growth increasingly rides Rest-of-world and Europe while North America's share erodes. All four lines rest on only two to three brokers.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Managed services | $3.01bn | $3.06bn | $3.14bn | $3.14bn | +1.5% | 3 |
| Geography | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - North America | $2.97bn | $3.06bn | $3.15bn | $3.28bn | +2.9% | 2 |
| Revenue - Europe | $703.82m | $756.39m | $786.21m | $818.46m | +7.5% | 2 |
| Revenue - Rest of the world | $850.86m | $885.83m | $934.05m | $983.99m | +4.1% | 2 |
Free cash flow dips in FY2026 then reaccelerates — FCF margin troughs near 14.5% before recovering to ~16.6%
The models show a one-year cash-conversion dip in FY2026 before FCF outgrows earnings into FY2028, lifting the FCF margin above its FY2025 level. This is the best-covered differentiated line, at five brokers.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities | $789.60m | $792.60m | $867.40m | $972.53m | +0.4% | 5 |
| Free Cash Flow | $693.24m | $678.96m | $744.87m | $835.22m | -2.1% | 5 |
| FCF margin(%) | 15.3% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 16.6% | -0.8pt | 5 |
Where brokers actually split: FY2027 free cash flow and FY2028 operating EPS
Consensus on near-term revenue is tight; the real dispute is on how much cash and out-year EPS the model throws off.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | FY-2027E | $750.17m | $740.00m–$762.29m | $664.32m–$807.59m | 5 |
| EPS - Diluted - Operating($) | FY-2028E | $9.07 | $8.87–$9.21 | $8.54–$9.32 | 4 |
Thin, uneven coverage — five brokers at most, segments on two
No line exceeds five brokers; geographic and managed-services detail rests on two to three, and a 12-month backlog line (single broker) was excluded. Headline P&L and FCF were revised late June 2026, but segment lines were last touched in May 2026 or August 2025. Treat the wide EBITDA-margin dispersion as a definitional artifact, not a real debate.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.